Ipswich have spent more than £120m. Coventry have broken their club transfer record three times in one summer. Hull have bought a goalkeeper from Olympiacos for around £20m. And all three are named as the three most likely relegation candidates, by the bookmakers and by every published model we could find.

Coventry were promoted as Championship champions on 95 points with 97 goals scored, a season that hardly suggests a team on its way straight back down. Ipswich finished second on 84. Hull took the third place through the play-offs after finishing sixth on 73 points, settling the final against Middlesbrough in the 95th minute.

The market is unmoved. Relegation odds make Hull a clear favourite to go down, with Coventry and Ipswich just behind. A simulation model run by an odds comparison site puts Hull's relegation risk at 84 per cent, Coventry at 68, and Ipswich at 54. That is not an independent data provider and the numbers should be read accordingly, but the direction is the same in every source we found.

At the top

Arsenal won the league last season on 85 points, the club's first title in 22 years, with Manchester City seven points back and Manchester United third on 71. Liverpool finished fifth on 60.

Going into this season the order is identical at every odds source we checked: Arsenal favourites, Manchester City second, Liverpool third, Manchester United fourth. Arsenal sit between 11/8 and 6/4 depending on the bookmaker, City at 11/4. A reigning champion being favourite is unremarkable. Arsenal being that champion after two decades without a title is a new situation for everyone involved, including anyone picking a captain every week.

The league has also changed managers at a rate without precedent. Somewhere between eight and eleven clubs have a new head coach depending on how you count, with Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, and Bournemouth all entering the season with someone different in charge.

That is the detail that deserves the most respect in the opening rounds. A new manager means a new style, new set-piece takers, and often a completely different distribution of minutes than the historical data implies. Projections built on last season's roles are at their weakest in August, which is also when most managers lock their squads down hardest.

The season opens on Friday 21 August with Arsenal against Coventry at the Emirates, reigning champions against a promoted side. The two clubs stand on opposite sides of this report, and one of them has spent a fortune trying to prove the market wrong.

Ipswich have spent more than £120m. Coventry have broken their club transfer record three times in one summer. Hull have bought a goalkeeper from Olympiacos for around £20m. And all three are named as the three most likely relegation candidates, by the bookmakers and by every published model we could find.

Coventry were promoted as Championship champions on 95 points with 97 goals scored, a season that hardly suggests a team on its way straight back down. Ipswich finished second on 84. Hull took the third place through the play-offs after finishing sixth on 73 points, settling the final against Middlesbrough in the 95th minute.

The market is unmoved. Relegation odds make Hull a clear favourite to go down, with Coventry and Ipswich just behind. A simulation model run by an odds comparison site puts Hull's relegation risk at 84 per cent, Coventry at 68, and Ipswich at 54. That is not an independent data provider and the numbers should be read accordingly, but the direction is the same in every source we found.

At the top

Arsenal won the league last season on 85 points, the club's first title in 22 years, with Manchester City seven points back and Manchester United third on 71. Liverpool finished fifth on 60.

Going into this season the order is identical at every odds source we checked: Arsenal favourites, Manchester City second, Liverpool third, Manchester United fourth. Arsenal sit between 11/8 and 6/4 depending on the bookmaker, City at 11/4. A reigning champion being favourite is unremarkable. Arsenal being that champion after two decades without a title is a new situation for everyone involved, including anyone picking a captain every week.

The league has also changed managers at a rate without precedent. Somewhere between eight and eleven clubs have a new head coach depending on how you count, with Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, and Bournemouth all entering the season with someone different in charge.

That is the detail that deserves the most respect in the opening rounds. A new manager means a new style, new set-piece takers, and often a completely different distribution of minutes than the historical data implies. Projections built on last season's roles are at their weakest in August, which is also when most managers lock their squads down hardest.

The season opens on Friday 21 August with Arsenal against Coventry at the Emirates, reigning champions against a promoted side. The two clubs stand on opposite sides of this report, and one of them has spent a fortune trying to prove the market wrong.