GW 7 – Arsenal visit a Forest side with 5 points from 9.6 expected
Played for 9.6, rewarded with 5
Nottingham Forest are fifteenth with 5 points from six matches. Their expected points, what their chances should have earned, come to 9.6. Only Arsenal have more, 10.6. Forest create 1.9 expected goals per match, joint second in the league with Brentford, yet they have scored just 5 goals. Only Tottenham have scored fewer.
Their shortfall of 4.6 points is the third largest in the league, behind Fulham and Bournemouth. Forest also generate the third most expected threat from open play, 1.3 per match, and concede 1.3 expected goals. They have lost two in a row. Morgan Gibbs-White shares fifth place in the league for open-play expected threat at 0.31 per match.
Arsenal's numbers lead the league
Arsenal have 15 points and the league's highest expected points, 10.6. They have the best defence by expected goals conceded, 0.83 per match, and have let in 5 goals. They won last time out after the defeat at Brighton. Bukayo Saka is seventh in the league for expected goals per match at 0.58.
The eight meetings since 2022 have brought five Arsenal wins, two draws and one Forest win, with 2.2 goals per match. The last two meetings at the City Ground both finished 0-0.
City's six in a row
Manchester City lead with 18 points after six straight wins and have scored in 22 consecutive matches. Their expected points are 9.5, so the surplus has grown to 8.5, the largest in the league. City concede just 0.09 expected goals within eight seconds of losing the ball, the fewest of any side, and complete the most passes, 548 per match. Erling Haaland is third in the league with 0.72 expected goals per match.
Ipswich have 9 points from 7.6 expected but have conceded 12 goals. City won the last two Premier League meetings between the sides, 4-1 and 6-0.
Brentford unbeaten in eight
Brentford host Liverpool unbeaten in eight and having scored in eight in a row. They are the league's most dangerous side straight after winning the ball, 0.56 expected goals within eight seconds of regaining possession, with Liverpool second at 0.48. Brentford are fourth with 10 points, Liverpool ninth with 9, and both are close to what their football has been worth, 9.1 and 9.0 expected points.
Liverpool come off a defeat. The ten meetings since 2021 have brought six Liverpool wins, two draws and two Brentford wins, with 3.3 goals per match. Brentford won the last meeting at their ground 3-2.
Fulham and Bournemouth still waiting
Fulham are bottom with 2 points. Their expected points are 8.8, and the shortfall of 6.8 is the largest in the league. They are winless in six. Hull come to Craven Cottage with 9 points from 9.0 expected, despite creating the least in the league, 1.0 expected goals per match, having the lowest field tilt, 0.26, and completing the fewest passes, 214 per match.
Bournemouth have 3 points from 9.4 expected, a shortfall of 6.4, and are winless in eight. They still create the most from corners, 0.6 expected goals per match. On Sunday they host Sunderland, who have lost three in a row and carry the league's least threat after winning the ball, 0.1.
Newcastle's eight points
Newcastle have the league's lowest expected points, 5.1, but 8 points and eleventh place. They concede 2.0 expected goals per match, second most in the league, and 0.61 within eight seconds of losing the ball, joint most with Crystal Palace. Aston Villa have 5 points and win the ball in the attacking half less than anyone, 17.0 times per match. Victor Lindelöf has played more minutes than anyone in the league, 609 including stoppage time. Villa won 2-0 at St James' Park in the last meeting.
Everton host Chelsea unbeaten in six. Thierno Barry is second in the league with 0.74 expected goals per match. Chelsea have scored 15 but also conceded 13, joint most with Newcastle and Bournemouth. Everton won the last meeting 3-0.
Brighton, United and Tottenham
Brighton have won three in a row, scored the most goals in the league, 18, and create the most, 2.1 expected goals per match. Yet they have not beaten Crystal Palace in the last four meetings. Palace have the league's weakest defence, 2.3 expected goals conceded per match. Eight of the 18 meetings since 2017 have been drawn.
Manchester United have 6 points from 7.7 expected and are winless in four. They generate the most open-play expected threat in the league, 1.5 per match. Leeds win the ball in the attacking half more than anyone, 33.0 times per match, and James Trafford has prevented 3.5 goals, the most of any goalkeeper. Leeds won the last meeting 2-1 at Old Trafford.
Tottenham have scored 3 goals in six matches, the fewest in the league, and are winless in six. They have the fourth highest field tilt, 0.65, but share the weakest build-up, 0.29, with Brentford and Ipswich. On Monday night they host Coventry, who have won two in a row.
The top two by expected points meet
By expected points Arsenal and Forest have played like the league's two best sides. The table has them ten points apart. On Sunday goals decide it, not expected goals, and Forest have five from six matches.
Fixtures matchweek 7 (CEST): Everton–Chelsea Sat 13:30, Brentford–Liverpool Sat 16:00, Fulham–Hull Sat 16:00, Manchester City–Ipswich Sat 16:00, Newcastle–Aston Villa Sat 18:30, Bournemouth–Sunderland Sun 15:00, Brighton–Crystal Palace Sun 15:00, Leeds–Manchester United Sun 15:00, Nottingham Forest–Arsenal Sun 17:30, Tottenham–Coventry Mon 21:00.
Source: Premier League Weekly Report – Matchweek 7 (PlaymakerAI)