GW 6 – Manchester City have 15 points from 8.5 expected and go to Anfield
Three clubs on 8.5
Three clubs share the league's highest expected points, 8.5. Manchester City have turned that into 15 points and top the table. Arsenal have 12. Bournemouth have 3 and sit seventeenth. No club has more points above its expected total than City, and on Sunday they go to Anfield.
City's run is real: five straight wins and goals in 21 consecutive Premier League matches. But two of those wins came from games the numbers called even or worse. They beat Manchester United 1-0 with 0.8 expected goals each, and Sunderland 5-3 while creating 2.5 and conceding 2.8.
Arsenal and Brighton after the 3-0
Arsenal open the round at home to Leeds on Saturday lunchtime, after losing 3-0 at Brighton. They still have the league's best defence by expected goals conceded, 0.86 per match, and its best build-up at 0.35. They have won five home matches in a row and the last seven meetings with Leeds. Bukayo Saka shares third place in the league for expected goals per match at 0.66. Leeds are unbeaten in five and win the ball in the attacking half more than anyone, 34.0 times per match. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has 0.55 expected goals per match, eighth in the league.
Brighton go to Sunderland in the afternoon. They have the league's highest expected goals per match, 2.3, and have scored 16 goals, more than any other club. They also concede 1.8 expected goals per match, which only Crystal Palace and Newcastle exceed. Sunderland have lost two in a row and hold 4 points from 6.1 expected. Their two Premier League meetings with Brighton have brought one draw and one defeat.
Bournemouth and Fulham are still waiting
Bournemouth visit Chelsea on Saturday afternoon, winless in seven. They concede 1.2 expected goals per match, fifth best in the league, and nobody concedes less within eight seconds of losing the ball, 0.07. They also share the best expected goals per corner, 0.11, with Brentford. Chelsea have 7 points and lost 3-0 at Brentford last time out. The last three meetings between the clubs were all drawn.
Fulham have the league's second largest shortfall: 2 points from 7.3 expected, and no win in five. They go to Ipswich, who have 6 points but have conceded 11 goals. Both Premier League meetings between the two have been drawn. At the same time Aston Villa host Brentford, who are unbeaten in seven, post the second highest expected goals per match at 2.1 and have the best counter-press in the league, 0.6 expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball. Villa win the ball in the attacking half less than anyone, 15.0 times per match.
United and Forest on five points
Manchester United host Tottenham on Saturday evening with 5 points from 6.8 expected. United have the league's highest field tilt, 0.71, the most entries into the box, 22.0 per match, and the most expected threat from open play, 1.6. Only Arsenal concede fewer expected goals; United share second place at 1.1 with City and Nottingham Forest. Kobbie Mainoo leads the league in progressive carries with 179 metres per match. Tottenham have 2 points and 2 goals from five matches. United have won 9 of the 20 meetings since 2016, Tottenham 7.
Nottingham Forest go to Crystal Palace on Sunday with the same 5 points, from 8.2 expected. Igor Jesus shares third place with Saka for expected goals per match at 0.66. Palace have the weakest defence in the league by expected goals conceded, 2.2 per match, the fewest entries into the box, 7.0, and the lowest expected points, 4.2. They also have the league's top creator in open play, Edward Nketiah, at 0.4 expected threat per match. Palace have not beaten Forest in eight meetings since 2022, and the last three were drawn.
City's 15 at Anfield
Liverpool against Manchester City on Sunday (17:30 CEST) is the match of the round. Liverpool are unbeaten in six and have kept three clean sheets in a row. Their counter-press is second only to Brentford's, 0.55 expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball. Virgil van Dijk gains more ground with his passes than anyone in the league, 571 metres per match. Liverpool have 9 points from 7.4 expected, close to what they have earned.
City complete more of their passes than any other side, 0.84, and concede 0.08 expected goals within eight seconds of losing the ball, second only to Bournemouth. Erling Haaland leads the league with 0.79 expected goals per match. City have won the last two meetings, the latest 2-1 at Anfield in February. Over 20 meetings since 2016 City have 7 wins, Liverpool 6, with 7 draws and 3.0 goals per match.
Two clubs on eight points
Hull host Everton on Sunday afternoon. Hull are eighth with 8 points from 7.4 expected, and they have done it with the league's lowest field tilt, 0.24, and the fewest passes, 212 per match. Everton are unbeaten in five and have Thierno Barry fifth in the league for expected goals per match at 0.65.
Newcastle close the round at Coventry on Monday night with the same 8 points, from 4.4 expected. Only Crystal Palace have lower expected points. Newcastle concede 2.0 expected goals per match, second most in the league, and 0.62 within eight seconds of losing the ball, the most. Lukáš Horníček is the league's best goalkeeper by goals prevented, 3.6. Coventry have scored 1 goal in five matches and share the league's lowest expected goals, 0.91, with Palace. That goal won them 1-0 at Forest last time out.
By expected points City, Arsenal and Bournemouth have played like the same team. The table has them twelve points apart. Anfield is the first real test of how much of City's lead is their football and how much is their finishing.
Fixtures matchweek 6 (CEST): Arsenal–Leeds Sat 13:30, Aston Villa–Brentford Sat 16:00, Chelsea–Bournemouth Sat 16:00, Ipswich–Fulham Sat 16:00, Sunderland–Brighton Sat 16:00, Manchester United–Tottenham Sat 18:30, Crystal Palace–Nottingham Forest Sun 15:00, Hull–Everton Sun 15:00, Liverpool–Manchester City Sun 17:30, Coventry–Newcastle Mon 21:00.
Source: Premier League Weekly Report – Matchweek 6 (PlaymakerAI)