GW 22 – AIK have ten points their football has not paid for
The table lies hardest in the middle this season. The teams in fourth through eighth hold 28 points more than their play warrants between them, while ninth through eleventh are 12.5 points short. The largest single distortion belongs to AIK. Seventh place carries 33 points against 23.0 expected, and nobody else in the league comes close to a ten point gap. Four of the round's eight fixtures put a side above its numbers against one below them.
Grimsta at three o'clock
Brommapojkarna host IFK Göteborg on Saturday with the visitors on three straight wins. The head to head is lopsided, 12 wins to 3 across 19 meetings since 2007, but the interesting contrast is in how the two sides move the ball forward. Brommapojkarna win fewer balls in the attacking half than anyone in Allsvenskan, 21 per match. Göteborg win 33.
Göteborg are also the league's most dangerous side from corners at 0.21 expected goals per match. Tobias Heintz ranks second in the league for threat created in open play with 0.47 per match. Even so the club sits on 29 points against 32.6 expected, one of the few teams in the top half receiving less than its play has earned.
Sirius are eight points to the good
Örgryte against Sirius looks uneven because it is. The leaders have 48 points to Örgryte's 15 and arrive on two straight wins. Örgryte post the league's lowest field tilt at 0.33, meaning the smallest share of play in the final third, and have conceded 47 goals. Sirius record the league's best chance creation at 0.05 expected goals per attack reaching the final third.
Yet Sirius hold 48 points against 40.0 expected. Eight points of credit is a heavy thing to carry with nine rounds left. Earlier on Saturday Västerås SK face Malmö FF, two sides on 32 and 33 points against 24.9 and 27.6 expected. Västerås' surplus of 7.1 points is the second largest in the league behind AIK's, and Otto Rosengren ranks fifth for shot assists at 2.4. Malmö lead the league in expected goals from free kicks.
Djurgården have not conceded in five matches
Djurgården against Elfsborg is the fixture of the round. The hosts arrive on five straight wins and five straight clean sheets, and Kristian Lien shares the league lead at 0.69 expected goals per match. Djurgården also record the best buildup efficiency in Allsvenskan at 0.37, meaning a greater share of their attacks reach the final third than any other side's.
Elfsborg have scored in eight consecutive matches and hold the league's finest open play creator in Arber Zeneli at 0.47 threat per match. The clubs have met 111 times in Allsvenskan with Elfsborg ahead 44 wins to 36. This is the only fixture in the round where both sides sit close to their own underlying numbers.
AIK's ten points
Halmstad against AIK is the uncomfortable one. AIK sit seventh on 33 points. They generate 1.29 expected goals per match and concede 1.75, fourth most in the league, and have scored 30 against 32 conceded. Those are lower half numbers, and yet the gap up to Elfsborg in fourth is a single point. They have won three of their last five.
Halmstad have 11 points against 20.3 expected. They own the league's weakest defence by expected goals conceded at 2.14 and its weakest ball recovery at 0.16, and they sit last on expected points too, which no other side in the relegation fight does. Meanwhile Kalmar FF meet Häcken. Kalmar are winless in seven and hold 19 points against 28.7 expected, the largest shortfall in the league. Charles Sagoe Jr ranks fourth for assists per match at 0.41.
GAIS sit tenth and play like a top-four side
Mjällby against GAIS is where the table looks most wrong. GAIS have 27 points against 34.0 expected, seven points short, and have conceded only 20 goals. Only Djurgården have conceded fewer. They also win more balls in the attacking half than anyone in Allsvenskan at 38 per match, level with Hammarby, and Oskar Ågren ranks third in the league for progressive carry distance.
Mjällby hold 22 points against 21.4 expected, roughly what they have deserved, but concede 1.79 expected goals per match. The clubs are evenly matched historically with three wins each and five draws across eleven meetings since 2010.
Degerfors close against the league's best attack
Degerfors against Hammarby ends the round. Hammarby have scored in twelve consecutive matches, generate the league's highest expected goals per match at 2.26 and concede the league's lowest at 0.93. No other side tops both lists. Paulos Abraham matches Djurgården's Lien on 0.69 expected goals per match.
Degerfors produce the league's lowest expected goals at 0.91 and its weakest chance creation at 0.02 expected goals per attack reaching the final third. They still hold 19 points, level with Kalmar, in fourteenth. The meetings run high scoring historically at 3.4 goals per match across 27 fixtures, and Hammarby lead 14 wins to 8.
Nine rounds remain. AIK's ten extra points sit on the table and count like everyone else's. But they are borrowed, and Allsvenskan tends to call in that kind of loan before November.
Fixtures round 22: Brommapojkarna–IFK Göteborg Sat 15.00, Västerås SK–Malmö FF Sat 15.00, Örgryte–Sirius Sat 17.30, Djurgården–Elfsborg Sun 14.00, Kalmar FF–Häcken Sun 14.00, Halmstad–AIK Sun 14.00, Mjällby–GAIS Sun 16.30, Degerfors–Hammarby Sun 16.30.
Source: Allsvenskan Weekly Report – Round 22