Two days before the Gameweek 1 deadline, Riccardo Calafiori is owned by 28.2 per cent of all FPL managers. William Saliba is owned by 0.4 per cent. The gap between them is not a judgement about who defends better, it is a medical report, and the bet the market has actually placed is not on Arsenal's defending but on two injuries lasting a while longer.

The numbers come from FPL's own game data on Wednesday 19 August, and they keep moving until the deadline. David Raya costs 6.0m and is owned by 34.6 per cent. Gabriel costs 8.0m and is owned by 28.9. Calafiori costs 5.5m and is owned by 28.2. Cristhian Mosquera, at Calafiori's price, is owned by 11.4 per cent. Then come two of the first-choice back four. Saliba, 6.0m, listed as injured with a zero chance of playing and the note "Back injury - Unknown return date". Jurriën Timber, 6.5m, listed as injured with a zero chance of playing and "Groin injury - Unknown return date". Saliba is owned by 0.4 per cent, Timber by 0.2.

The ratio between Calafiori and Saliba is therefore roughly seventy to one. Nobody who plays FPL believes Calafiori is seventy times the better player. What the manager collective has done is something else, and something more interesting: it has read an injury list and bought minutes. That the cheap replacement is now owned by almost as many managers as Gabriel, at two thirds of the price, says something about how fast that calculation was made.

In itself that is rational. Minutes are the most valuable asset in FPL, more valuable than talent, because a player who does not play returns zero however good he is. A 5.5m defender in a team that keeps a clean sheet gives you exposure to exactly the same clean sheet Gabriel gives you at 8.0m. The market has not been stupid. It has been as calculating as it usually is.

The problem sits in three words in FPL's own note: unknown return date. There is no date to plan against. Anyone buying Calafiori for Gameweek 1 is buying an asset whose value is set by another player's back, and the pricing mechanics punish a wrong move. When you sell a player who has risen, you get back the purchase price plus half of the rise, and the rest stays with the house. A popular cheap defender rises early. Buy in August, sell in October, and you pay twice, first in points and then in budget.

The market has priced an injury, not a defence. If Arteta has both Saliba and Timber back in October, almost three in ten FPL managers own a player nobody needs to pick any more.

Two days before the Gameweek 1 deadline, Riccardo Calafiori is owned by 28.2 per cent of all FPL managers. William Saliba is owned by 0.4 per cent. The gap between them is not a judgement about who defends better, it is a medical report, and the bet the market has actually placed is not on Arsenal's defending but on two injuries lasting a while longer.

The numbers come from FPL's own game data on Wednesday 19 August, and they keep moving until the deadline. David Raya costs 6.0m and is owned by 34.6 per cent. Gabriel costs 8.0m and is owned by 28.9. Calafiori costs 5.5m and is owned by 28.2. Cristhian Mosquera, at Calafiori's price, is owned by 11.4 per cent. Then come two of the first-choice back four. Saliba, 6.0m, listed as injured with a zero chance of playing and the note "Back injury - Unknown return date". Jurriën Timber, 6.5m, listed as injured with a zero chance of playing and "Groin injury - Unknown return date". Saliba is owned by 0.4 per cent, Timber by 0.2.

The ratio between Calafiori and Saliba is therefore roughly seventy to one. Nobody who plays FPL believes Calafiori is seventy times the better player. What the manager collective has done is something else, and something more interesting: it has read an injury list and bought minutes. That the cheap replacement is now owned by almost as many managers as Gabriel, at two thirds of the price, says something about how fast that calculation was made.

In itself that is rational. Minutes are the most valuable asset in FPL, more valuable than talent, because a player who does not play returns zero however good he is. A 5.5m defender in a team that keeps a clean sheet gives you exposure to exactly the same clean sheet Gabriel gives you at 8.0m. The market has not been stupid. It has been as calculating as it usually is.

The problem sits in three words in FPL's own note: unknown return date. There is no date to plan against. Anyone buying Calafiori for Gameweek 1 is buying an asset whose value is set by another player's back, and the pricing mechanics punish a wrong move. When you sell a player who has risen, you get back the purchase price plus half of the rise, and the rest stays with the house. A popular cheap defender rises early. Buy in August, sell in October, and you pay twice, first in points and then in budget.

The market has priced an injury, not a defence. If Arteta has both Saliba and Timber back in October, almost three in ten FPL managers own a player nobody needs to pick any more.