Fantasy GW 20 – 59.9 percentage points of the league own a player who no longer exists
A week ago this column went out with the figure 63.6. That was the combined ownership of four players the model had already set to zero expected fantasy points, for the simple reason that they had changed clubs. Ahead of round 20 the same four names stand at 59.9. The market has corrected itself by 3.7 percentage points in seven days, and that is the most interesting number in the entire report.
What has changed since last week is that the error is now irreversible. The Swedish transfer window closed at midnight on 31 August. Robbie Ure (29.9 per cent ownership), Elliot Stroud (15.7), Mikkel Ladefoged (9.7) and Rony Jansson (4.6) cannot be re-registered, loaned back or resurrected as fantasy assets by any other route. They are zeros for the twenty rounds ahead. Ure alone still sits in roughly 17,300 of the league's 58,025 registered teams, and every round he costs that team a place in the eleven.
It says something about how a fantasy game differs from following a league. Points are reported weekly, but the squad is managed passively, and the interface does not tell you that a player has ceased to exist. Ure's 129 fantasy points remain in the team list and look like credentials. The column that matters is the one to their right, and it reads 0.0.
Hammarby own the model's top list, not the public's
The clearest thing about round 20 is not a captaincy pick but a fixture. Hammarby travel to Örgryte on Sunday at 14.00. Örgryte sit fifteenth, have conceded 42 goals in nineteen rounds and returned 33 fantasy points last week. Hammarby are second with 44 scored and 18 conceded, and arrive on a four-match unbeaten run.
The model answers by filling the top of the list. Lind is second on 5.4 expected points, Abraham third on 5.3, Skoglund fourth and Winther fifth on the same 5.3, and Madjed seventh on 4.9. Five of the seven highest ranked players in the round wear the same shirt. Add Persson on 4.4 and Hammarby account for six of the twelve names across the report's two top lists.
Ownership has not followed. Lind is owned by 27.4 per cent and Abraham by 39.3, but Skoglund stays at 15.9, Winther at 24.1, Madjed at 7.3 and Persson at 2.5. The last two are the most obvious differentials of the round, and they play in the same attack as the two everybody already has.
The public's team looks different. Bo Hegland is owned by 52.3 per cent, the second highest share in the league, and was last round's most captained player with eleven points. His expected points for round 20 are 3.4. Kristian Lien is owned by 37.6 per cent, was the most bought player ahead of last round and scored twice. His figure is 3.1. Both play away at Kalmar on Monday evening, and both are reasonable holdings. Neither is anywhere near the five Hammarby players, and the gap exists because the fantasy market buys last round while the model prices this one.
Bjerkebo and the cost of being the most owned
The highest expected points in the round still belong to Isak Bjerkebo on 5.5, and he is owned by 66.8 per cent. That is the highest ownership share in the league and it has not moved all August, despite Sirius turning down every bid and despite the side returning 30 fantasy points last week after losing 0–1 at home to Malmö.
Sirius lead the table with 42 points from nineteen rounds, and Bjerkebo has accumulated 147 fantasy points, the most in the league. He is correctly priced and correctly ranked. But at 66.8 per cent ownership there is no advantage left to take in him, only a loss to avoid, and Västerås at home is not the fixture that turns him into the difference between two teams. At two in three teams in the league, a player becomes part of the floor rather than the ceiling.
The cheaper names that can actually move a table sit further down. Doumbia at Häcken has 4.8 expected points at 2.7 per cent ownership and a price of 5.6, away to a Gais side that took 91 fantasy points last round but has conceded only 18 goals in nineteen matches. Kamara at Elfsborg is on 4.6 at 6.1 per cent ahead of the trip to Brommapojkarna, and Gefvert at Västerås on 4.4 at 3.6 per cent after ten points last round. Degerfors' Skuseth has 4.4 expected points and zero per cent ownership, the most extreme combination in the whole report. That nobody owns him does not mean the model is wrong. It means nobody has read the line.
The chips tell you what the league believed
Of the chips played in round 19, Dynamic Duo was by far the most used with 5,697 played, against 1,865 loan squads, 955 wildcards and 528 parked buses. Dynamic Duo rewards doubling up on two players from the same club, and in round 19 that was a reasonable read in a week when Gais took 91 points and Djurgården 86.
In round 20 the same logic points one way clearly enough to be worth stating plainly. If a chip that rewards two players from one club is going to be played at any point this autumn, the weekend when five of the model's seven best players face the league's leakiest defence is a hard candidate to beat.
Round 19 produced an average of 50 points and a high score of 121. That gap is rarely built by a captaincy pick, which costs or returns around five points. It is built by how many places in the eleven can actually produce.
The deadline is Saturday at 14.55. The window has been shut for a week, which means four of the names in this column will never return a point to anyone again. 59.9 percentage points of the league still have not acted on it. The question is no longer whether they know. The question is what it says about the rest of their team.
Round 20 fixtures: Degerfors–Halmstad (Sat 5/9 15.00), Gais–Häcken (Sat 15.00), Västerås–Sirius (Sat 17.30), Örgryte–Hammarby (Sun 6/9 14.00), Brommapojkarna–Elfsborg (Sun 16.30), Kalmar–Djurgården (Mon 7/9 19.00), Malmö–AIK (Mon 19.00), Mjällby–Göteborg (Mon 19.00).
Source: Fantasy Allsvenskan – Round 20, PlaymakerAI. Ownership shares and expected fantasy points as of 2 September 2026.