Sirius have already won the league. The question is whether they sell it away.
The starting point
Sirius lead Allsvenskan by fourteen points in early August. 41 points from 15 games, a goal difference of plus 25, and a team nobody had picked above mid-table. This is not a good season, it is the kind of season books get written about.
So we asked the only question left: what happens if they sell? We built two versions of the rest of the season and ran each one a million times. Played matches are fixed, everything else is left to chance.
The title race in two scenarios
In the sale scenario Sirius part with their three best players, forwards Isak Bjerkebo and Robbie Ure and their best defender Mohamed Soumah, replaced by mediocre players in the same roles. Team strength drops a full star, from five to four. The other fifteen sides stand still.
The result: Sirius' title chance falls from 89.1% to 55.0%. A steep drop, but they remain favourites. Fourteen points is a serious buffer even for a weaker team. The one side that really benefits is Hammarby, almost quadrupling its chance, from 10.0% to 38.5%.
The attack is worth more than the defence
We also ran a middle case, selling only Bjerkebo and Ure with the same drop in strength. Sirius land on 60.2% and Hammarby on 34.5%. The forward pair plus the downgrade account for nearly the entire fall from 89 to 60. Selling Soumah, the best defender, costs only another five points. Uncomfortable if you are the back line, but that is what the numbers say.
The whole league, side by side
Notice how little moves below the top rows. Hammarby is the only team that gains anything from a Sirius sale, plus 28.4 points. No one else shifts by more than 2.7. The European race between Djurgården, Malmö FF and Häcken barely moves a single point. They fight for the same two places whatever Sirius do in the window. In expected final points Sirius land on 67.8, nine clear of Hammarby's 58.7.
Mjällby are the hidden riser
The table is an average. The truth is in the placement distribution: for each team, how often they finished in each position across a million seasons. Sirius never finish below seventh, and 99.9% of the time they are top three. That is no longer a forecast, it is a formality. Mjällby sit eleventh but the model gives them 18.2% for a top-three finish, fifth highest in the league. A five-star squad and a game in hand. Seventeen points looks worse than it is.
The relegation fight
Halmstad go down in 96.4% of simulations, Degerfors in 73.8%. There is mathematical life in both, but the kind you switch off a respirator. The third drop spot is open: Örgryte are worst placed with a 53.5% risk of the play-off or relegation, while Kalmar, IFK Göteborg and Brommapojkarna all sit between 13 and 20%. The middle? AIK, Elfsborg and GAIS have essentially nothing to play for. Eleven weeks of pure football without consequence. There are worse ways to end a season.
Method: all 121 remaining matches were simulated a million times per scenario. The 119 matches played through round 15 are fixed. Squads, playing styles and team strengths taken from Playmaker's production database as of 4 August 2026.
Source: PlaymakerAI – Allsvenskan 2026, simulation as of 4 Aug 2026.