GW 5 – Bournemouth have the league's second-highest expected points and three real ones
Four rounds is too short a sample for conclusions about the table and exactly long enough for conclusions about who has been robbed. Bournemouth sit fifteenth on three points. Their expected points total of 7.6 is the second highest in the Premier League, two tenths behind Arsenal's 7.8. They generate 1.82 expected goals per match and concede 1.06, a profile that belongs comfortably in the top half. On Sunday they host Liverpool.
Friday night at the Community Stadium
Brentford host Chelsea on Friday evening. Brentford are unbeaten in six and post the league's second highest expected goals per match at 2.08. Keane Lewis Potter leads the Premier League for threat created in open play at 0.37 per match. Chelsea have scored in eight consecutive matches and hold the league's fourth best creator in João Pedro at 0.75 assists per match.
The head to head is as level as the sides look on paper, three wins each and four draws across ten meetings since 2021. Both are classed as direct, low block teams, and both sit close to their expected points. That makes this fixture unusual in the current round.
No goals in four matches
Tottenham have not scored this season. Four matches, zero goals, two points. They record the league's weakest ball recovery at 0.04 expected goals within eight seconds of winning possession and share bottom place for buildup efficiency. At the same time they rank sixth for field tilt at 0.65, meaning a substantial share of play in the opposition half. They arrive, and then nothing happens.
Opponents Aston Villa carry one goal and one point, the league's lowest expected goals at 0.79 and, level with Tottenham, its weakest chance creation. The clubs have met fourteen times since 2019 averaging 3.3 goals per match. That average is unlikely to survive.
Arsenal on nine straight wins
Brighton against Arsenal sets the league's most expansive attack against its most efficient. Brighton post the highest expected goals per match at 2.49 and the highest field tilt at 0.76, and have scored 13 goals in four matches. They also concede 1.88 expected goals per match, which is why they hold only seven points. Pascal Groß ranks second in the league with 3.0 shot assists per match.
Arsenal arrive on nine consecutive wins having scored in twenty straight matches. They have conceded one goal in four rounds and record the league's best buildup efficiency at 0.35. Bukayo Saka ranks third for expected goals per match at 0.74. Arsenal also hold 12 points against 7.8 expected, the league's second largest surplus.
A mid-table nobody should read yet
Everton host Ipswich on three straight draws with Thierno Barry fifth in the league at 0.69 expected goals per match. Ipswich hold six points but have conceded ten goals, with only Crystal Palace worse. Abdul Fatawu ranks second for threat created in open play.
Newcastle against Hull is the round's clearest collision between results and performance. Newcastle have five points against 3.0 expected and concede 2.11 expected goals per match, second most in the league. Hull sit fourth on eight points with the league's lowest field tilt at 0.17. They hold the smallest share of play in the final third of all twenty clubs and have still conceded only two goals.
Forest, Coventry and Leeds
Nottingham Forest meet Coventry unbeaten in three. Igor Jesus records 0.69 expected goals per match, fourth best in the league. Coventry carry four straight defeats, zero points and zero goals, but 4.1 expected points, more than Crystal Palace, Fulham or Aston Villa have actually collected. Jack Rudoni creates 0.33 threat per match.
Leeds host Crystal Palace after four unbeaten. Leeds win more balls in the attacking half than anyone in the league at 34 per match, level with Brentford. Palace own the weakest defence by expected goals conceded at 2.33 and enter the penalty area less than any other side, seven times per match.
Bournemouth's 7.6 meets Liverpool
Bournemouth against Liverpool is the fixture of the round. The hosts are winless in six, hold three straight draws and have still scored in twelve consecutive matches. They record the league's best set pieces by expected goals from corners at 0.59, and Evanilson ranks third in the league with 0.8 assists per match. What is missing is the points.
Liverpool are unbeaten in five and record the league's best counterpress at 0.66 expected goals within eight seconds of a turnover. Alexander Isak leads the Premier League at 0.76 expected goals per match. History is emphatic, twelve Liverpool wins in sixteen meetings, and the fixture averages 4.1 goals. Meanwhile Manchester City host Sunderland with Erling Haaland on the same 0.76 expected goals and the league's best defence at 0.63 expected goals conceded.
Craven Cottage closes the round
Fulham against Manchester United is the second fixture where the numbers and the table are strangers. Fulham sit eighteenth on one point against 5.7 expected, a shortfall of 4.7 that is the largest in the league. They generate 1.73 expected goals per match and concede 1.21. United sit thirteenth on four points against 5.6 expected and enter the penalty area more often than any other side at twenty times per match. Kobbie Mainoo leads the league for progressive carry distance.
History favours the visitors, nine wins to one across twelve meetings since 2018. But both sides are playing better than their points suggest, and one of them is going to get paid on Sunday evening.
After four rounds Arsenal and City hold four and five points more than their play warrants, while Bournemouth and Fulham are nine short between them. These things level out. What decides a season is how many rounds pass before they do.
Fixtures round 5: Brentford–Chelsea Fri 21.00, Tottenham–Aston Villa Sat 13.30, Brighton–Arsenal Sat 16.00, Everton–Ipswich Sat 16.00, Newcastle–Hull Sat 16.00, Nottingham Forest–Coventry Sat 18.30, Bournemouth–Liverpool Sun 15.00, Leeds–Crystal Palace Sun 15.00, Manchester City–Sunderland Sun 15.00, Fulham–Manchester United Sun 17.30.
Source: Premier League Weekly Report – Round 5